Bitcoin Case For Bull’s Returning
G’day ladies and gentlemen. Just wanna do a quick soundcheck please before we kick this puppy off. If you can hear me can you please communicate that that is what you can do. I’d appreciate it. And then we can get started. Just waiting on the soundcheck there, make sure you guys can hear me loud and clear. Okay wonderful . Okay. Well, let me take you through. Hello? Let me take you through exactly, let me blow those up nice and big for you. Let me take you through exactly what I’m seeing at the moment right. Pretty important factors that I’m–, from the weekend. For a start, can you see? I’m all pink, sunburn.
Had a beautiful day here in Sydney, just hanging out at the park with the kids. Managed to get a bit of red, bit of red on the face, couple of lobsters in the pot. Mmm, it was a good weekend, I hope you had a killer weekend as well. But now I’m back and because I took some time off, obviously last weekend I was in Brisbane running the course, then I had a weekend before where I didn’t have the course and the weekend before that I was on the course.
So it was really nice to just relax over the weekend, I feel very, very refreshed, and I just love the feeling of coming back to the mic ’cause when you do feel refreshed, you just feel like a new lease on life. So I’m pumped. And the good thing was is that I didn’t trade over the weekend, I hardly even looked the charts over the weekend and it’s actually shown me some stuff. So I wanna show you a couple things here relating to Bitcoin because that’s our Mack Daddy and it’s important, and then we’re gonna have a quick rift through the top ten together.
I won’t take too much of your time. For a start, this is a higher low than this high low. Sorry this is a higher low than this low. This is a higher high than this low high, so we have technically an up trend, eh. It’s not a very good one. It’s not one that I’m willing to invest very heavily in. It’s not got that lovely cyclicity and that really strong move running through here. Up in Nusa, nice mate, nice spot to be, wish I was still there.
We haven’t had this really nice runs with good cyclicity yet, but we might be in the position where we’re about to start another one. I say might because I’m reading the charts. Not what I think, not what I feel, I’m just reading the charts. So let’s see what happened last week, obviously we sold off quite hard at the beginning of the week, what we saw here on this particular candle was a 10% increase.
Well, what am I talking about? Well from the low to the high we’re just shy of 10%, which is a big turn around. The day itself only closed up 2.58%, but the turn around of that day was significant. We closed above 10,000. I mean it was a very, very strong selling day, as was this. We had a bigger day here, but we bounced straight back. The next candle. Look, the low of that candle 9,777. We went below 10,000 again, closed above 10,000 again. And again that was a, let’s have a look at the size of that candle. 8% candle. Again a big swing.
Now we’re seeing things calm down a little bit more, but rejecting 10,000, closing above, rejecting 10,000, closing above. Again the low here. This is the bit for next chart. Rejecting 10,000, closing above again. You get the picture. Now what does this look like as we go down lower? Let me take you there. I wanna throw this up on four hour. What we have is a higher low, a higher low, and what we also have is a bit of resistance starting to come in. Now I know there’s a bit of a breakout, that is the beginning of it.
I wanna see a third test before I’m even considering a Bitcoin breakout type trade. There’s a lot more in that particular trade set up than just at resistance level, all right? But what I am looking at is these higher lows coming out, the constant rejection of 10,000 makes me believe, at the moment, combined with these higher lows, combined with those daily wicks that are continuing to bounce back on those big move days, that we might actually find a little bit of support here at 10,000 as we see this starting to set up as a resistance level, we may actually see a breakout here.
And I’m still gonna wait, there’s still more that I’ve gotta see. Good convergence here on the chart, higher lows coming up into there, and Bitcoin is starting to look a little bit more saucy, a little bit more sexy. And if the weekly, look the weekly’s not showing me a great deal at all, but it did close above 10,000 again, 10,332 on the bit for next chart here. So we are starting to see a little bit more strength around that 10,000 level. To be honest it’s a mess, the weekly’s a mess, the two-day, meh, it ain’t pretty either. The one-day, it’s not pretty either.
But those rejections is telling me something and this is what trading’s about. It’s about learning the language, learning about what it is that you’re seeing, understanding and disseminating that information into ideas for potential trades that match up to a checklist-based trading system. And that’s exactly what we do. So with my checklist I’m just watching it right now, I’m sitting on it and I’m seeing if I get those checklist- based trading strategies to give me trading opportunities, ’cause it makes me–. It takes any guessing work out, it’s pretty straight forward in that respect.
I don’t have to think, I just act upon what my checklist-based trading strategy does. Let’s have a look at the rest of the top ten, of course Bitcoin we just had a look at that. Ethereum, we did see a bit of a pop on Ethereum yesterday but the truth of the matter is it’s back in the cradle zone. You know, what do they say? All tides rise, sorry, a rising tide raises all ships? Or, I don’t know, you get the point.
Bitcoin didn’t have that rising market, but the rest of the alts did. What we’re gonna see as we go through this, is yesterday’s close on the daily, they were all up a lot more than Bitcoin. Nearly all of them anyway. Some pretty solid moves, I mean yesterday 4.89% on Ethereum. It is still in a downtrend here and on the four hour, look I’ve gotta be honest right now, it’s not got exactly what I wanna see. I wanna see it pulling back into the cradle zone, I wanna see it continuing on. I wanna see a lot more than what I’m seeing at the moment, but it is looking a little bit more positive, just because I’ve had an update, but it’s still quite bear-ish.
EOS, same sort of kettle of fish here guys. Down trending, lower highs, lower lows. Back into the cradle, move, back into the cradle, will we see a move? Time will tell. Again, it’s a checklist based trading strategy that I’m waiting to see the checklist meet. It’s not there yet, there’s nothing for me to trade yet, but I am keeping a close eye on that. The four hour once again not a big deal to me right now and yesterday like I say, up 3.82%. Excuse me. Better than Bitcoin.
Stellar. Look it’s the ugly duckling, look how ugly this is. When I say ugly, I’m not talking about the project, I’m not talking about to do with anything other than the actual chart. And this is what I teach about, when I talk about optimal chart structure and cyclicity. Look at how wicky this is, this is not a good chart for me. This is not a good trade-able chart for me at this stage, especially with these big spikes down. That’s where you get slippage, that’s where you get stopped out at way worse levels. Adversely you can get your targets hit, but I just don’t like these big spiking charts, and if I show it to you on the four hour, it’s really not telling me a great deal at the moment.
One that I stayed away from for quite a while. XRP, well here’s the interesting thing on XRP. Check this out. This is all I’ve been talking about, or had been talking about for quite a long time, 28-5. We smashed down through it, we’ve come back into it, we do have a down trend, and can we pop through this resistance now? Old support becoming new resistance, well time will tell. There’s no trading opportunity there for me just yet, again I’ve just not met the checklist-based system. It’s really that simple.
If I get the checklist-based trade, I take it. The essential and bonus factors line up, I take it. It’s not rocket science. It’s right in that spot, I’m keeping a close eye on it today, but it’ll probably be these 12 and 16 hour time frames that I’m gonna spent most of my time, coming back again tonight at probably 10PM is when that 12 hour’s gonna close, I’ll suss it out then. Onto Litecoin now.
Of course that 74 dollar mark or roughly around that region, it did, it has played out. Still if we go back, resistance, support, support through here, I know it’s broken it before. I do get that and I was looking this morning with members to see you know, is this the level now?
And no I’m not gonna say that that is. It’s not precise enough for me. This 74 level or you know 78, or sorry, around 74 I should say, has been pretty good for a while and look, as much as we do have a nice downtrend here, on the higher time frames the problem I’ve got is that there is a bit of support right there, and a little bit above there, which is I was speaking to a little bit before.
So yes great little cradle there, but no I’m not looking to trade that. Gonna keep an eye on it see what happens throughout the day, maybe I’ll get a breakout, no, doesn’t look likely. Let’s keep going. A question, “Hey Craig, Mitch here from Glasdon, just at the airport from London now, heading back to Australia.” I don’t envy you, depends on whereabouts you’re sitting on the plane Mitch but I’ve done that flight many times before and eyyy.
Mind you, with two kids now, I’d probably really enjoy that flight, simply because it’s 24 hours of watching movies. Seems like a pretty damn good idea at the moment. On the bab, Bitcoin Cash obviously very ugly. Check this chart out, this is not optimal chart structure, this is not a market that is conducive consistency in my trading view, in my checklist-based trading systems. It’s really not very good at all. Check it out, higher–, and it’s just all over the shop, nothing more to really say. I’m not gonna talk about a chart just for the sake of it.
Binance. Been hanging in that consolidation for a while now, we’re either gonna breakup or we’re gonna breakdown. Of course, no shit Craig. But look right now there’s nothing of interest there really for me, couple of tests there. Again, I’m not looking to trade a chart that’s this all over the shop. I want nice, clean, trending charts. I want cyclicity, I just don’t got it.
TRON, what a beautiful test back in here that was, look at that, bang down she goes. Kiss of death. Now it’s performing back a little bit. What is that level? Well there’s an old level of support acted as resistance, and you can see the method to the madness. Yeah I’ve checked out the height Horizon State News, we’ve got a little bit of information from that. I’m not gonna say anything, I don’t think it’s my place to do so.
I’m sure they’ll come out with more information about that, pretty sad though. So yes I try and daily downturn looking super-duper. Ahh, Pedro, Brazil. I hope Gabriel Medina and Filipe so that they don’t win the WSL this year, my friend I’m sorry to say that, it’s just facts. Actually Filipe, I don’t mind Filipe getting in there, getting his first, that’d be good. I would like to see someone break Gabriel Medina’s most recent run though. Anywho, back to the charts. Yeah look, watching this on the 12 hour, we do have some convergence.
Let me just check for any Fibonacci points here. Let’s see if we get a confluence at all. No. Okay, I’ll get rid of both of those. Look, TRON, it’s been trending down quite nicely, I just don’t see anything here right now. It’s not a bad trend don’t get me wrong, it does get a little bit funky sometimes because it’s too, in my view, too connected to Justin Sun. I don’t like the way that personalities run, I suppose trends a lot on many of these projects. But that being said I’m happy to trade it, just haven’t got anything just yet. And finally here, Cardano.
Back into the cradle move, back into the cradle here as you can see. Let’s have a quick little squizy moo-hoo here. It’s divergent on the 12, it’s divergent on the 16, it’s divergent on the daily, it’s a thumbs down. Now for those of you who wanna look at BSV that’s absolutely fine, yes I do need to update my list I know, and I will at some point. We’ve got a downtrend. I haven’t had any trades, to be honest with you guys, on Bitcoin SV.
Not because I have an opinion about the project, couldn’t care less, but because of this. See how it’s erratic? Very, very all over the shop, I’ve never liked, this just spells disaster if you get slippage, bad slippage with a margin position. So I’ve just avoided it, that being said, I was watching this level very closely last week for a break and a re-test.
Now I didn’t get exactly what I want, again I’m just trading from a checklist. It’s simple checklist-based trading strategy. I just didn’t get all the ticks that I needed to take a trade. You can see that old support acting as a bit of resistance right now. Let’s have a look at it on the other side. They could break up through there, would I take a trade on the way up? Well it’s gotta pull back, it’s gotta sit up a little bit more. I haven’t got all the essential factors there yet, but I’d be willing to keep an eye on that.
You know what I can do? I can do this, add to watch list and now it’s there ladies and gentlemen. Boom. So yeah just my biggest watching, my biggest attention grabber at the moment across the top ten is definitely Bitcoin. As we build up into this level of resistance with these higher lows of course, rejecting 10,000 on several occasions last week. Rejection, rejection, closed above, closed above, closed above, closed above. It is starting to look a little bit more bullish there, things can change in an instant. When I say a little bit more bullish, I’m talking about trend, I’m not talking about, we’re going to all-time high.
I’m talking about reading the trend, okay? I’m not suggesting we’re going to continue to move higher, I’m looking at the trend, I’m following a checklist system to give me the opportunity to get entry. Technical analysis is not hocus-pocus, technical analysis is not a silver bullet. It is an ability for you if you know what to do to get entries and exit points with your stop offs and your targets. That’s what I use it for, that’s why I wanted to take you through it. And yeah, okay question. Hi Matt, “How do you see the MACD on TRON on the 12 hour?”
Let me tell ya, let me just give you that right now. I see it as convergent. Most recent low here to the last low we’re convergent here. Okay? We’re definitely convergent, looking fine indeed Adam. G’day Jack, good to speak mate. So yeah that’s my run through the top ten guys. To find out when we go live more often, subscribe to YouTube, get me on Twitter @TraderCobb and also like and, what do they , follow me on Craig Cobb on this Facebook account Craig Cobb, that way when I do go live you know what’s going on and I don’t always go live across all the groups, often it’s just for the people that like and follow Craig Cobb and TraderCobb.
That’s where we go live sometimes just spontaneously when I see something coming up. So if you are in a different group and you don’t follow me yet then please, do get across and follow because you will get access to additional content that we put out and we do it often. Have a cracking day guys, bye for now. Be safe, manage your risk, take it easy, pew.
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