My Take On Bitcoin & Ethereum

There is no doubt about it, the market has the jitters. I am seeing multiple posts about the fear index and various other indicators so I thought it would be a good time to give you my view on the top-2 based on how I trade.

By Trader Cobb -

Good day, good day, all. Just a quick soundcheck if you don’t mind, please guys. If you can let me know you can hear me that’ll be fantastic. Usually a slight lag here so I’m sure I’ll see the messages coming through in a moment.

Just want to go through and have a look at Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two obviously big dogs of the space by quite a considerable amount. Ethereum is still running two times over XRP. Good, looks like everybody’s got me loud and clear, excellent.

Okay, let’s jump up to the charts. Now, I’m not putting myself in the corner on this one simply because I’ve not shaved my head or my face and I’m dressed like a bit of a hobo as I wasn’t really expecting to go live tonight. So anyway, let’s get going if you’ve got any questions, please this is an interactive session.

Make sure you ask me, I’m more than happy to answer your questions. See what’s coming through and you know, have a conversation. See what you want to look at. All right, cool.

Bitcoin

So I’m gonna do Bitcoin first. I’m looking at the BitFenix chart right here as it stands and of course just hanging out around that $10,000 mark right now. Not too much going on there.

If you can’t see, I’m not sure, I think it might be your end as I can definitely see things my end. So maybe just restart, cool. All right so we’re sitting around 10,000 right now. A couple things to know, first of all, I’m gonna start at the weekly here and move my way out. If you look at this weekly chart it’s pretty messy, right. It’s not really showing me a great deal.

To be fair, there’s a couple of different levels right now on this weekly that I’m interested in. The first is this low. If it breaks down through these lows with this lower high potentially then we’ve got a lower high and low, i.e. a weekly downtrend. Let’s see, one month, see how that looks. Looking at the monthly right now of course this was a decent pullback, right.

That was our pull back and that pull back, how deep did we go there? I haven’t even looked at this. We went down 83% from the highest, fair enough. But look at what we did see. A huge run-up, it’s not too obscene to see a decent pullback like that. The monthly, look it could certainly pull back further. I mean, everybody will, anybody who’s followed me for a little while will understand or know that I use a zone called the cradle area or the cradle zone between the 10 and 20 period moving average.

So if it pulls back into there that gets us into around that six, seven, to 7,000-ish, that sort of level. So yeah, it’s for me, it could definitely get in there. I mean look at the months. One, two, three, four, five months green and especially the last these three. One, two, three, a very large move in there. I speak to this move from the lows to the high quite frequently. 327% upside.

Very, very big move indeed. And look, where we are right now we’re not that far off all-time highs. It’s not that far off. I’ll jump back to the weekly now and show you. If we do break down through this level and yeah sure, I can see it’s getting back on to that monthly, no doubt at all. It could certainly do that but one of the things I want to look at here is just how messy this chart has become.

I’m going to look back into the history of Bitcoin and its bullish moves to see how long we can expect to wait from time to time. I’m gonna go back to this 2016, ’17 run because that was a very strong one. If you look back here and of sort of ’15 start of ’16 we saw a very large period. What will be said, let’s go from December to May. I mean that’s a pretty long period of time for nothing to really occur.

And we might actually go into that. If you consider the fact that we had a push up and then a consolidation, and then the move started. We’ve had a push up, a consolidation, and perhaps that will be the catalyst for our next move. I don’t know this but what I am looking at if the past can represent to me our prior to a really big move. We could sit sideways for quite some time, guys. That’s the reality of this is it certainly, when it pulled back in and we saw this bullish cradle, loss or a candle and then this one.

I looked at this some okay, if we can break the high of this candle then we we may just see a continuation of this weekly uptrend. There’s a higher low as it broke through here. That was at the point that I said higher high and that’s the point that I was suggesting that the uptrend had kicked back in. I’m not saying that I took a long trade there.

That’s not what I’m trying to get across, that’s not my message. I said that is where the trend changed as it broke up through this level here we went into a weekly uptrend and of course history can show us that we’ve seen a very strong move since then. But we are definitely in a funny little zone right now. One of the other things that I want to point out is this.

We have a higher low here to this. Only by a very small margin and a higher high. This bullish candle here was of interest to me. We didn’t break the high of that we actually pulled back but here above 10,000, above 10,000, so on and so forth. Good to see you Crypto Koala. This candle here closed above 10,000. What will this candle do? I’m not sure. I have to wait and see until tomorrow morning at 10:00 a.m. Sydney time.

But I want to bring this up on the foreground. The runs that we have had since these big highs have been getting smaller and smaller. Now, I’m a trader that looks for opportunity. Most strategies are my strategies and I’ll trade whatever’s there. This particular trade here, I did not take. It was a loss one of the two, I believe. Was is that? Was it the two or was it just the four? Where am I looking here?

Yeah, no, it was, yeah, it was on the four. I was actually at an event so I did not capture that short there that many people did and did very well from that of course. Stop move down to here. Stopped out eventually. Then we saw this relatively messy fall. There’s no pull backs, no beautiful opportunities there in the cradle. Then we saw this run back up and this was on the Thursday night three, three weeks ago.

I remember it was the Thursday before I went to Noosa. We saw a beautiful little cradle candle here which ended up being a very profitable run. Now I haven’t had many trades since back then and that was a beginning of August. It’s been a very, very cautious month for me thus far. Not many trades since then simply because I haven’t had many opportunities. We’ve seen trades setup just not trigger.

And the difficult thing as a trader is to make sure you don’t give your money back. I know that when I was learning I used to always, well not always, but very, very frequently have a good run and then post that good run. I would give a lot of those profits back and I just, I’ve learned that lesson now. It is something that I have learned how to deal with. Just because you’re not taking trades doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be in the market.

It just means you’ve gotta be patient. Then we saw this fall. Now that fall, the only potential opportunity that I could see through that whole thing was this. And it wasn’t one that I took because I was asleep or not there. The 11:00 o’clock candle, the 12:00 o’clock candle, the next one, I had some convergence and that break down was nice but I did not take that. I don’t know if anybody did but it was a set up.

Since then, we saw another fall after to our cradle and now look at this higher, low, higher, low, higher, low, higher, high. Pulled back into the cradle zone and failed. What I’m getting at here is that each of these moves whether they be up or down, or up or down, are getting shorter, and shorter, and shorter. Which means that where we were able to find the odd opportunity in those little runs we no longer are able to find it.

And this for hour chart right here, it doesn’t fill me with any joy nor does the two. Nor does the one. If you note this, this big sell-off, 15 minute. It happened very, very quickly and it’s been relatively messy since then.

It was not just Bitcoin that is also messy. If we look at Ethereum here, the one thing that I’ve got to I’ve got to grapple with myself, my own head is that beautiful pull back into the 61.8, $200 round number, bearish candle in the cradle zone, you know, it’s a nice looking cradle there. It could have been one to one, I didn’t take it. And the reason I didn’t take it was because I saw Bitcoin becoming bullish and I just didn’t, I just didn’t take it.

And I’ve told the people of our trade, with the people in the community and whatnot that I need to do an assessment on that. Now I made a decision and I stuck by that decision, which is fine but I need to understand if I was maybe a little bit too, I don’t know, maybe over the top on that. I’ve I’ve got a rule trade what you see, not what he think.

Ethereum

But the problem with crypto is especially with something like Ethereum, if Bitcoin goes up so too will Ethereum, more or less. Not at the same rate, but that’s very often the case without question. As Fiat fails could you see the rich take refuge accepting 90% lost verse 99% in fit. Don’t I think it’s a long way out? That would be a cataclysmic move and a shift in the world as we know it.

I don’t really know. None of my ability to predict has anything to do with something so severe as that. But it will unfold over time if that was ever to happen. So you would, you know, get a fair few more signs than what we’ve got right now. But yeah, again, coming back to Ethereum, I didn’t take that daily candle. I was very open to trading this if I was to get a trade through this breakout level.

But again, look at how messy these charts are. The charts right now are quite messy. And look, the bottom line is this guys, what I trade, it’s my money. When you trade, it’s your money. Now I can go long, I can go short. If the market falls or hedge, or short, or trade. If the market gets higher, or short. Sorry, or go long and I’ll trade with margin. What I learnt many years ago was that direction is all that we need.

As a trader, I just need clear direction and I just don’t have it on the meads. The daily, yes. Lower low, lower high. Haven’t made a lower low yet but there is a much better bit of direction there. But the opportunity’s past.

It’s a real thing as a trader to do nothing and if you can’t fathom that then you need to really focus on your psychology. Doing nothing is often the best thing you can possibly do. I’ve had a good month thus far just off that one Bitcoin trade. I believe I gave a little bit back. I got a one-to-one, I think I gave a little bit back on a non leveraged trade on a Binance pair against Bitcoin.

My role right now is to focus on keeping the capital that I have in my account and just plucking out the odd little gem here and there. And that’s really what it’s all about. So from my point of view, Bitcoin, Ethereum, not a great deal going on right now. It’s a really good time to work on your trading plans, go through your past trades, try and learn as much as you can, get sharp, get ready for whether this market goes up or down.

And if you don’t know what you’re doing in that space make sure you follow me on Facebook, on YouTube, on Twitter, all those types of things so that you know when I go live again. We’ll try and help you with as much as we possibly can. Have a fantastic evening ladies and gentlemen. Bye for now.

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