Trading Cryptocurrency in a Pandemic | Trader Cobb LIVE (2020)
With a pandemic sweeping the globe and markets becoming increasingly volatile I have a lot of people messaging me and asking what they should do.
This is a LIVE Q & A to answer all of your questions and explain how I am approaching this situation. Please share this video with all of your trader friends, I want to help remove fear and uncertainty in these times.
🔴 Subscribe for more great content: http://bit.ly/34M6Grd
👨🏻🤝👨🏻 Share this livestream with a friend: https://youtu.be/1nRq2rOYatQ
🙋 Learn to Trade – It’s easier than you think: https://tradercobb.com
🌍10% DISCOUNT at FTX: http://bit.ly/2sJ1kjk
🌎10% DISCOUNT at Binance: http://bit.ly/2ta6OUu
Learn To Trade Now: https://tradercobb.com/bundles/
Okay, we got that fixed. That was good. didn’t take too long. Technology.
All right, so I’ll wait for you guys to get in. The whole purpose of this guys is really to bring you back to what’s actually going on. And to help. Obviously everything I do is is you know, you speak to my team, if you get the chance to.
I actually really care about helping other people and I’m a Labrador. I need a pat in the back. I need to be told I’m a good boy and I love to give. That’s genuinely who I am and what I do. So, this is about showing you a couple of things that I don’t think I’ve traded through the GFC. Okay, that’s one of the events that really, I suppose made me if you want to say it that way.
I mean, I’m happy to say it that way. It made me a lot of money. I was short Babcock and Brown. I was short RBS. I was short Northern Rock early in the piece, and I did very well. Now we’re going through something that I think is much more intense than the GFC of course we’ve got this virus that is wreaking havoc to put it bluntly.
Yeah, I want to hear a conspiracy theory. I want to hear everything this is an AMA. This is what it’s here for. I’m here to answer your questions. And be here for you guys. I’m going to cross and show you some charts and a little bit as well. But this is about understanding where you’re at and helping you to navigate this, this ever changing world that we’re living in at the moment.
So anything that you want to ask, please go ahead and ask. I’ve got my chat box over here so I can see. I can see what you put in there. I just moved so I can see it a little bit easier and this is for you guys to try and help you to navigate thing. Okay, so Los Angeles Girth PNIS that must be an acronym for something else.
Corona 19 is government made forcing us to go into quantarantine and take a vacation? Look I’m not real big on conspiracy theories I gotta be honest. Because requires me to think and I’ll be dead set straight with you when it comes to the markets. I did this today actually put a video out to my membership.
Basically just saying. I’m being good. As you can see I’m so quarantined. It’s a very lonely. Yeah, I’ll put a video out today because I don’t I don’t tend to think when it comes to trading and thinking always cost me money. I got many examples where I’ve thought things and it’s costing me money. Let me actually let me just give you something right here.
I’ll show this to you. Now most of you have understood or heard me, say, the cradle zone, the cradle trade and that sort of thing. Now, if I take you back to a time when there was a lower, high, lower low, and a pullback of the rejected 9000, more or less here, that was a crowded trade, cradle trade short.
And, you know, look at that move. So there was an opportunity for me to be short, though, and I’ll be honest with you, I’m not going to tell you to trade. I’m not gonna tell you that I was in a trade when when I wasn’t. I didn’t take that. I know some members did. And obviously they’re pretty happy right now.
But I did not. And this is the prime example of me thinking I thought more based on the weekly chart right here and I was proven to be very wrong. And it was a really good reminder that the way that I’ve built my career and my accounts. And of course my business as well, is to not think it’s to act.
It’s to have strategies and rules to, not to react but to act. And I want to talk to the reaction of a lot of people in the space at the moment and go through a few things. Yeah, another thing it did step down, do you think crypto will prove better than other assets? Well, let’s talk to that to start this off, okay.
Let’s look at the realities. Now. I don’t trade or teach or trade these markets. Okay, but I’ll talk to them. Now we’ve seen the S&P 500 which is a global barometer for the health of the financial system more or less, okay, if you don’t want to use it as that exact word then that’s fair enough, but if you have a look at this, I’ll throw up the weekly chart.
Look at that. That is quite brutal from the highs to the lows. We’re talking about a 32% retracement, that’s a big move. Okay. And this is the S&P. The S&P 500 is the largest index in the world and it’s come off and look how it’s come off.
Now what can we compare that to? Here was our last GFC look at this okay so let’s look at it was already in a downtrend so that was the only reason why I already had shorts on. Lower high lower low lower high lower low pullback in, I was getting short Northern Rock somewhere I think it was here or here.
I can’t remember because I’ve done at the chart cuz Northern Rock is no longer and RBS… but then we started cascade selling. Now from the beginning and look, it was down trending and the real selling started from here. That’s a 50% pullback just away from the highs. It’s much more. We’re talking nearly 60%. So the only comparative that we’ve got is the GFC and again, I’ll remind you that I traded through the GFC.
I’ve been there done that and my advice to my family my parents who are recently retired and you know they’ve got some money that’s tied up in their fund was to exit. I’ve been saying that since for probably the last 12 months I sold most of my shares down 18 months ago. I’m not doing this to be you know Billy big dick and tell you that I know everything not at all.
But you know, you don’t get runs that last for 11 years without a decent correction and this was definitely on the cards as far as I’m concerned. And if you don’t believe that I was ahead of this then go and listen through the history of my podcast and whatever else you can do what you want there I’m not too concerned you do whatever you want all right.
So it’s in the S&P fall dramatically and if you consider the market cap of Bitcoin right now I think it’s $96 billion. Each of the like this gap down here so we closed there we gapped down even further that is wiping off more than the entire market cap of Bitcoin. That’s that’s saying something. That’s a big move.
So, I was saying last week, actually was Thursday, last week, I wrote a piece. And I was completely wrong. And I will freely admit that. I don’t have a crystal ball, but I do talk and work to markets. Okay. I am a student of the markets, I was saying around here, which was last week, the Thursday, then we saw this.
Now, I’m still a little bit iffy on what that was. I’ve been reading a few bits and pieces and a lot of that has been negativity around which I say, Bitmex and certain liquidated positions and whatnot for longs and the glitch and all that sort of stuff. But the fact of the matter is, is it fell 45% of the day.
Before then, as the global economies were collapsing, and markets are falling, we didn’t do much. The markets didn’t move all that much, then this happened. Since then, the recovery has been about 5000 Look, we haven’t moved very far. So if anything Bitcoin and I’m not saying it’s a safe haven.
No way. I’m not saying that we’re looking at direct correlation between Bitcoin and traditional markets and it wasn’t there. The only way the only place that’s really correlated was on this big massive fall. And I’m still dubious as to why that felt. So is this positive for crypto?
It’s very difficult if you were sitting up here and we’ve been consolidating for another week, I think we would start to see some upticks as fund managers individuals start to look for other options and here’s the reason why. Go back to this non crypto gold. Gold. Come on. Come on, pick him up.
Gold has not done what gold would be expected to do. Now often it can be a little bit late. Sorry, that’s silver. GC is the gold contract. We have had a pretty good run in gold for a while but when the market started to sell off, gold has actually sold off. Silver has been absolutely obliterated.
And the 10 year note, which is a bond contract to highly traded bond contract went really well but it’s since pulled back and it’s pulled back during a period where the market has also sold off quite heavily. Now I’m looking at this on the two day cradle.
Now again, I don’t teach how to trade these traditional markets because I don’t have an FSL so I won’t talk to them. I’m just showing some things that I see here that I think are valuable for us to understand the ASX 200 has continue to just slide like you would not believe.
It has been an enormous fall. And And honestly, you know, we I don’t think we’re through it. Now I also don’t think I try what I say not what I think so whenever markets, global markets continue to fall and get your questions ready to because you’re asking me sure this is what this is an Ask me anything.
That’s what an AMA stands for. Will come back to and say, while ever global markets are falling and shedding billions and trillions, and Bitcoin is holding its ground more or less. Aside from the massive fall we saw, and I’m still not sure the origins of that fall. I don’t really care to be honest.
It’s not like it would be nice to know. But I’m certainly not gonna waste any time trying to find the reasons why. It just is what it is. And that’s as a trader that things just are what they are. It is what it is we adapt and we trade what we see not what we think.
Since then, we’ve had a good week period, a week where we recovered and we’ve held and are above 5000. And that is where we are, while the rest of the world has sold off heavily. Now, consider a couple more things. We’ve got cash limits in place now with many different institutions. We’ve got these massive stimulus plans happening around the world to stimulate business staying open to stimulate everything in the US.
I think that covers 1700 US dollars for each member of the public, which I don’t know what that’s going to hell, but I really don’t it it’s a if they’re doing it because it’s a nice thing to do, and that’s fine, but I really don’t see the stimulus working there? You know what what happened when Kevin Rudd in Australia gave people 1000 bucks whatever it was they went bought plasma TV.
We need to see some actions coming in place and I don’t know what those actions look like we’ve seen things in Italy, the the halting of mortgage payments for a prolonged period of time, we’re going to see a lot more stimulus come in, we’re probably going to see the, the non privatizations of a lot of different businesses.
Now, all of you who are in gainful employment are likely going to have either in Australia called a superannuation or a 401 or in the UK called a pension. Now, those are going to take a hit. In my view, they certainly will because they’re invested in these markets. We’re going to see a lot of big changes coming in.
Now I’ve spoken to a very large broker today when I say broker, a broker is an extremely like an in crypto they’re called exchanges is the function where we can buy and sell. In traditional markets they are calledbrokers. Now, I’ve worked with many with many brokers. And you can see that on the website, many brokers for over a decade now.
And I spoke with one today because we’re looking to do some stuff with them. And they’ve reported their biggest month on record. Now that’s volume as well as new accounts. So it appears that people are with this uncertainty flocking to the markets because there’s opportunities that are available. And this is one of the best things about being a trader.
Remember, in the GFC. I didn’t know you go to barbecues, you go to things remember the GFC was a financial crisis. It wasn’t a health crisis. So you could still do stuff. It was just people didn’t have as much money and they were fearful of losing their jobs and many did.
But they’ll ask you what you did if you met someone new at a barbecue and I was telling I was a trader, I stopped that pretty quickly. As you said I’m in sales because no one asked a question. If you say you’re a salesman, no offense to anyone in sales. It’s a marvelous. Marvelous occupation.
But they were blaming it on me saying, oh, you’re a short seller, blah, blah, blah. And it’s not that at all. It wasn’t that at all. What we’re seeing at the moment is a global health crisis and a perfect storm because 11 years of bull bull sorry, 11 years of bull markets, and quantitive easing, which is the US printing money.
Let me show you the difference between a country that does do QE and a country that doesn’t do QE, jump back to the weekly here. And I’ll come back to questions in just a second. I just wanna sort of give a nugget of what I’m seeing. Not thinking but what I’m seeing and then I’ll come to your questions.
You know, what we’re seeing right now is for zoom out since the last GFC what was it what occurred this was down here. The the Federal Reserve cut the libel rate the discount rate that banks could lend, and it helped and then we saw quantitative easing, this is quantitative easing.
Let me show you the results of a country that does quantity easing from the high, sorry, from the low to the high, 410%. Now let me show you a country that doesn’t do quantitative easing. And from the low to the high, it’s 129%. So you can see that potentially I can call overinflation of markets without a justification for that growth. Okay.
Now you can see this is the ASX 200. Back here in 2007. We reached a high of 20 or sorry 6827 or whatever that is, right. 68 or 51. Now, that was in 2007. We’ve had to wait 15 years to just break above and now we’re back to the prices they were back in 2006. Very bad for Australian investors. Okay.
So what do you do in this circumstance? Well, I can tell you that through my team and through the messages that I get, the emails that we receive and everything that we do on the space. And people know that I’ve traded through a GFC before, and they know that I can get a read on markets. So I’ve been doing this for over 14 years now.
But I haven’t got an ** sell. So I can’t talk to these markets in a trading sense. I can just observe, observe, observe, observe what I’m seeing. A lot of people are coming out of the woodwork asking how to trade, what they should be doing. One of the frustrating things that I’m seeing at the moment is people are rush buying, they’re thinking, it’s a good time to buy.
And sure if you’re, you know, if you’re relatively young and you don’t need the money, you got surplus cash flow and you know, if your job was to disappear, you’re still fine for a number of years and that’s okay, because you probably will see your money come back at some point. I don’t know when.
But it got me to thinking. A lot of people now working from home. A lot of people now are in quarantine, we’re likely to see more of that type of currents across the world. It means they’ve got time. Now, it hurts me that the time they’re spending is on trying to buy things with absolutely no knowledge at all.
None. The panic buying. There’s nothing more important than understanding what you’re seeing nothing more important than your education, now’s the time to be doubling down and learning what to do. Now, I’m not suggesting this is not a sales pitch. I’m not suggesting that you go out and buy my courses right away.
No, I’m not saying that. But now’s the time to learn. Because we are going to get through this as a community as a world. That’s the good thing about it. It’s not just attacking one group of people it’s getting us all. We’re going to have an opportunity to do phenomenally well.
And those that are already prepared are doing phenomenally well, because you can go long make money as market goes up, and you can go short and make money as market goes down. We’re doing well. But not everybody is. Education is the difference between success and failure when it comes to something like this. I’m gonna come across your question.
Okay, let’s have my friend was in the army just got an email for activation in martial law. So I’m assuming that Los Angeles grow girthy we’ll call that. You’re in, you’re in the US. I’m like that assumption. That’s quite interesting.
And it makes sense. I mean, we got to stop this thing. How does quantitive easing affect traditional markets? Generally? Aus or AUD stock, etc? Do you see it as good or bad for crypto? That’s a really good question.
Quantitive easing. What quantitative easing should do is it should increase inflation, because the value of the dollar decreases because there’s more in all the value of any currency for that matter decrease because there’s more in circulation.
It’s like, you know, if you were trading shells, bananas, if on Tuesday I trade five shells for one banana. And then all of a sudden the the beach washes up 10 billion shells, and everyone’s now got thousands of shells well the price of that banana is not going to be five shells anymore, it’s going to be 500 shells. And that’s the way it should work.
But it’s a little bit of different dynamic. And, and you know, without getting a conspiracy theory, like there’s, you know, the US is a very powerful nation. It still is the dollar, it still is the US dollar and US dollar is a flight to safe haven, I can show that to you right now on this chart, the DX’s traders quite a lot.
Back in the day, this is where is in the country for the Intercontinental Exchange or ICE. This is what happens during a period like this, we see a flight to the dollar. That’s what we’re seeing here. Look how choppy this was for so long then we see a flight to the dollar. Now if I just show it to you quickly on the daily and just give you some perspective here, that’s a big candle.
That’s a 0.4 of a percent. Now the reason you’d be aware of that is because of the. From the low to the high, that’s nearly 8%. Now when you see a big candle, it’s 0.4%. And this is an 8% move. That is a 20 times average True role, not even an average trend because a big candle. It’s a big, big move.
Now send this once before, and let me take you back to that time. We were calling it when I was trading back in the back in 07-08 mostly 08, which is when all sort of happened we call this the last dollar dash. And we were wrong. I’m sure you know, the dollar went flying through the roof and we were like well, the the the QA the quantitative easing their pumping money into the system that over inflating stock based all this sort of stuff.
And we saw that as a group of traders, not just me, but as a group of traders. We saw this as the last dollar dash we thought it was going to go shooting up while everyone sold their equities and sold the positions and went to cash and we would see it come down and to a certain extent we were right because it did come back off once the market started to recover the beginning of 09. It came off.
And then it went into a period. Look at this, look at it. This is a weekly chart each can represent one way, look at how messy it got for such a long time. It was all over the shop, then it slowed down, found some support around this sort of 79 handle, and then it shot off again.
Now look at what happened lately. Very messy. Until recently. What can the charts teach you whether you’re an investor, or whether you’re a trader, and you’re active? I can tell you a lot, but you need to know you’re looking at. Yeah, I’m equipped with these tools, because I’ve been through this before and I’ve been doing this for 14 years.
So this is about teaching you guys want to look for and what things certain things mean. This is people selling out and going into the US dollar. That’s what it is. Now we’ve also seen and coming back to your question about if it’s good or bad for crypto. We’re seeing people fly into the safe currency of the US dollar safe right?
Relative to history. It’s been the safe currency. There’s bank banking or cash restrictions on deposit on withdrawal. Which I think I think that builds to Bitcoin. I also think it builds to the uptake of a digital currency for a second reason, you know if people are either technology’s there and if people are touching banknotes and coins.
I think the virus last for 8 to 10 hours or something on on a surface so that could spread the disease. It could make it worse. So it’s, it’s kind of the perfect storm. Is it going to be good or bad for crypto is a fantastic question. It’s a question I can’t really answer with any certainty.
Now I was sort of leaning towards thinking about him, also leaning towards a guy again back this time last week to being good. Okay, I was coming back to I was coming back to the fact that I thought it was would be good. And I actually wrote a piece like I said, I was completely wrong over here, because during this period, the markets are falling sort of 6 or 7% a day.
And we were holding, I thought, you little ripper, here we go. We’re seeing the perfect storm. Bitcoin’s chance to step up. I think that might even be the title, the piece I wrote. And then we saw this. So that for me threw everything out the window. I had to reassess my thought process behind it all because you just don’t know, right?
I mean, what what makes logical sense doesn’t always mean that will, you know, create the logic to investors and traders. And that’s an exact example that is right here. So I had to go back to the drawing board and go Okay, well, I didn’t get that right. Can I still be right? Yeah, I can.
Because if that was caused by something known or whatever it was caused by, if we do come back hard, don’t forget $96 billion market cap or $98, whatever it is. We see now as 6 billion coming into bitcoin. Well, we’re going to do very well here. We’re going to see prices surpass all time highs.
And it’s not just a one to one example here where you go from Okay, if 96 billion comes in and we’re 54 it doesn’t mean that we’re going to go from 54 to 108, because a lot of people don’t sell bitcoins, the liquidity is dried up if there’s not a great deal of liquidity.
If they’re all coming fast, we could see $30,000. Because if no one’s selling, but people are buying and their herd mentality, finally buying buy, we should see this thing go nuts. But I’m also not in a position where I’m going to jump on the bandwagon and continue to say to people, I think this is what’s going to happen. Because the darnest truth is, no one knows what’s going to happen right now.
And that’s why for me and my members, and well all those that have learned what I do. We are positioned well, because we can trade movement, whether it goes up or whether it goes down. And that puts us in a good place. So do I think it could be good about the crypto?
Well, I don’t think I don’t know. No one knows. Time will tell the traders will do what traders do. And profits are there to be made. opportunities are there during these periods and I will be there Mother question. Hi Dennis, would you agree that the initial drop was more due to a liquidity squeeze in correlation with equities?
Again, you know, coming back to that it’s a question that I can’t answer with any certainty because I really don’t know. I’ve heard rumors. I’ve heard thoughts I’ve heard I’ve heard a bunch of different things. And based on what I heard, I did liquidate some of my Bitccoin holdings and went to cash. Well, once I went to Cash I mean USD, and that was just not because I don’t believe in Bitcoin.
It was a hedge. So about 50% of my Bitcoin holdings, I did put into cash or 50 percent my Bitcoin holdings, but it ends up being about, I think, 30% of my entire portfolio. And it was just a smart thing for me, it was about you know, I’ve got money, I’ve got the money there. And it’s about taking care of any further downside. So as a trader, every trade I’ve got has an entry and a stop loss. So I’m managing my risk on every position. Now you don’t need to have Bitcoin to trade Bitcoin.
And to trade its volatility. So if it does fall lower, fine. As a matter of fact, when I when the markets are going up, there is a certain platform I’d rather use because you can divert your profits into bitcoin. When the market goes down there is FTX which I use because it converts it into dollar. And it’s up to me when I convert it back to Bitcoin.
So I’ve been using that platform over the others for that simple reason that we’re in a downtrend by one dollar right now as the market follow profit, but I don’t lose my Bitcoin, like my Bitcoin doesn’t deteriorate in value.
You know, so if I was short here and converting to Bitcoin, then I’ve made big profit on the trading Bitcoin but Bitcoins always for also formed by 45%. So my profits are literally nearly half because I’m converting into Bitcoin. Will liquidity needs affect crypto, or is this market small enough to carry on?
Look, I don’t, I don’t see a world where digital currencies won’t be of value and in fact, on the contrary, I think that we’ll see the opposite. I think that it’s the you know, with this pandemic that is going on, as I said before the passing of germs through notes and surfaces, I think that it actually plays into more a non cash market.
We’ve seen that, especially in Australia, and if you’re not in Australia, that’s fine. But in Australia, they’ve put across a $10,000 cash ban, it’s illegal to do a transaction of $10,000. If you think about if, if I buy if I buy something off someone, my $10,000 that say $10,100. I give that cash to them.
I’m now breaking the law, they’re now breaking the law. And if they you know how, if they’re selling the car of a friend and they pass a 10,000 over, they’re also breaking. Well, there’s three laws broken on one transaction. So I think we’ve been in Australia we are quite ahead on that in terms of we’ve got all paypass everywhere you tap your car, your telephone, and I’ve noticed in my travels that we we do seem to be a little bit further ahead on that whole cashless sort of system.
But I don’t think the liquidity issue is an issue I think that the lack of liquidity it allows volatility like this candle but also allows volatility of this. That’s why I’m here guys. That’s why trade this market. The volatility is insane. It works for and works against. There’s a head and a tail to this equation.
One is a bullish Bitcoin one is bearish bitcoin. One is for big move up and one is for big move down. I will remind you this. After we hit the lows look what we bounced back on that day we bounced back 55% you won’t see any other market in the world right now. Well, I think anyway, do a move like that.
So is there potential for Bitcoin to go higher? Absolutely. Absolutely. Is there a potential Bitcoin to go lower? Absolutely. And this is a difficult question. And that’s why I’ve moved a bit to cash. But I can tell you right now, as someone who makes a living not off fundamental analysis, but on trading the market on trading charts.
For me, it’s this volatility that I live for, admittedly right now, we do have a little bit of a, it’s not looking that great on the charts. But what I teach and what I do and what my community is all about, and everything that we teach at TraderCobb.com is about being patient. One of my sayings is, if you’re a trader, you should have very warm hands.
And the reason for that is you should be sitting on them more often than you’re actually clicking the button. You see, we don’t base things on fear or greed. We base things on written checklists. And that helps me to not have to think. I tick boxes and, you know, people say to me all the time, well, why why if you’re such a good trader, why do you have you education business?
And the god honest truth is when you’re a good trader, it’s quite isolating. It’s quite boring. So many of you are working from home now. Alright, so you welcome to part of my life when I was just trading full time and I didn’t have a community that I didn’t have other people to trade with. It was just all me. So sure I was going for a surf I was diving, I was fishing I was I was, you know, doing stuff. But Guess who I was doing stuff with? Me.
So you’re in isolation now possibly in isolation now, and it does become boring. It really does. I know how to trade once you get good at trading. It’s it’s it literally is for the boxes. It’s tick. You know, it’s paint by numbers, right? It’s not a challenge. You just got to get better at staying between the lines.
Yeah, that’s that’s what trading really is. It does become Yes, you can make money but life isn’t just about making money. It’s about like, I’m a social guy. I love to be around people. This business for me has taken up so much of my time. I’d have a lot more time if I didn’t do any of this, like, for example right now is what 35 plus 7pm at night.
I could be at home with my kids right now. And if I was trading I would be, but I’m doing this because I’m a part of a group of people. I believe in what we’re doing. And I believe in helping other people and sharing that advice. It’s a new challenge, and I love it. And I’ll tell you what it’s pretty trying times right now, but I do thoroughly enjoy it.
And I really enjoy what I do. Question as a large percentage of Bitcoins is still idle in wallets, only a small percentage of Bitcoin trading and derivatives that’s affecting price. Do you think the real value of Bitcoin is not represented in the current markets? That is a bloody good question, Stacey.
Friend, well done. Jeez, that’s a I mean, I can’t answer that. Truly. I don’t think anyone can answer that really, truly. But you got to remember that you’ve stated real value. All right. Now what is real value? Real value is in the higher the eyes of the beholder. The eyes of the people involved in that market.
Now, in 2017, we saw the perceived value of Bitcoin go through the roof because of all the hype in the media and whatnot and it drove it very high. That was the value of Bitcoin at the time, because just like a piece of art, that is what people were willing to pay. Now you’ve got to remember I do everything by dragging out the spot spots, maybes and making it factual.
When it comes to trading, you got to remember, cut the crap. All right, no matter what you’re trading it’s a market. And a market requires a buy or sell up to bring it back to real simple terms. The local farmers market if I go to the market and I buy banana 50 cents. And this is, again, people say all trading is a zero sum game.
It is not a zero sum game. That is not true at all. I’ll tell you why. If the person who’s at the markets is selling the banana to me for 50 cents, and that same vendor bought that banana for 35 cents, just because that vendor is selling me the banana at 50 cents, does that mean a transaction when I heard where somebody lost and somebody won? No, the person who sold that banana made 15 cents.
It’s not a zero sum game. Money changes hand but just because you win, doesn’t mean there’s a loser on the other side. All right. So therefore, going back to that real value, real value is what people are willing to pay. Perfect example again, toilet paper, hand sanitizer, we’ve seen price gouging online on Amazon and eBay. I shot a lot of it down but we’ve seen that come into the space that toilet paper hand sanitizer three, four or five weeks ago or six months ago, there was no premium on that.
The value was said value it was just whatever was on the shelves you’re shopping on. Now the value has gone up Why? The value has gone up because it’s become more valuable to those that believe it’s more valuable.
Now if we were to see a large influx of money into Bitcoin and cryptocurrency then the value of that Bitcoin is going to increase any value is based on perception of the market. Who is the market? Well the market is the people that are willing to buy and the markets are the people willing to sell it.
And this is where Bitcoin I believe has a a little bit of an advantage, but also it’s a double edged sword. A lot of Bitcoin is held by a very few people. Now if that few decide they want to dump it, while we see an event like we did last this time last week or 45% fall. But in the case of people huddling if we see increased increase in demand for Bitcoin.
Well, those HODLers will continue to HODL. Because they’ll start to see the the curve increase. As they start to see the curve increase, they’re not going to sell, which means less on the market, which means less bananas. Now if there isn’t any bananas, think of avocados, right? We had lots of cyclones, the avocado shortage meant avocados went through the roof.
Trading and and markets are about buyers and sellers. And if you aren’t making decisions based on that every single decision you make, and that’s the whole checklist to me. Every single element of that checklist is about who’s in control. The buyers or the sellers. That’s it. There shouldn’t be any more to it.
Why? Because you got to strip all that crap away. You got to strip the 15 indicators people have on charts and indicators don’t make any decisions. They should be giving information about who’s in control, buyer’s or seller’s. Now I don’t want to take a train I never know. I never know.
But I’ve got a set of system or sorry, a set system in place and a checklist that increases my probability base over time and learning from very good traders in the past. So these strategies, are a lot older than a lot older than me. I don’t even know how old they are. But they just work. All right, they just work. So hope that helps.
You bought three M stock and now that I’m sorry it’s starting to fall. Thanks High Plains drifter, Craig bit off topic but in your opinion, how do you think the property market will be affected? Badly? Give you an example of that. My father was a builder developer in Noosa. He’s now retired builder developer who didn’t take your son’s advice and he’s losing lots of money.
Dad, idiot. Sorry dad. Not an idiot, but you should be listening to me. Anyway. I told him he had a property to sale for quite a large amount of money back in 2007, 8. Now when the banks collapsed, and this was before best and no sorry, this was when Bear Stearns went bust because that was the first public large company that went under.
I called my father and I said, Listen, mate, you’ve you’ve got to sell the property and you got to take a haircut you know, you got to offer a discount and you got to get out of this thing because it’s gonna cost you money in the long run. Now I gave him a price which you know, I’m not a real estate guy I mean I’m a markets guy, some …, but you know, I’m not a real estate guy, right?
And I said to him, you’ve got to get rid of this because if you don’t, you’re gonna be sitting there with a baby. So with the bathwater, no Baby, you’re gonna be the last one. You know, musical chairs. You don’t want to see. Anyway, he didn’t take. He had a set price and he wanted he did take a haircut but it was a very like a 5% haircut.
he didn’t take the process suggested then six months later the price came through. at a lower price contract fell through long story short, he lost a million dollars. And it hurt him so do I think the property prices will be affected by this? Yeah, I do. It’ll be a knock on effect, instantly, we’re going I think we’ll see a little bit faster because I don’t think we’ll see stock changing hands quite so readily.
Because people can’t, you know, they’re not willing to come together. And with all these fear and uncertainty around I think that.. The only people that are wanting to buy are going to want to buy at a discount. And if they’re somewhat savvy, they’ll probably wait a little while.
So yeah, I really do think it’s going to have an effect on on properties in a big way. I think we probably see it, in the next, you know, the next quarter, it’ll start, but it tends to take a little bit a little bit longer, because it depends on, you know, who’s desperate, how many jobs are going to be lost throughout this epidemic or this pandemic we’re going through.
If we see an enormous amount of jobs, I know in the eastern suburbs of Sydney where I live. A lot of people have mortgaged up to here or here that they’re out so like they are on good money and peddling debt, like you wouldn’t believe on incredibly low interest rates.
I’ve we’ve seen Italy shut down the payment back to banks for a period of three months. I think that’s what the periods been. I don’t see anything positive. In property at the moment. I I’m not, I’m not fear mongering, I’m not doing anything. I’m person that just tells you how I see things. I’ve been wrong before. And this is certainly not financial advice.
That is not what I do. I empower people to make their own decisions through education. So do I think property prices are going to be affected? Yes, I do. In the same respect, we’ve never been here before. So what stimulus measures will come in? The problem I think we’ve got is that the bulk of retail residential debt is in the trillions in Australia and I don’t think the government can afford to bail everybody out.
I just don’t either. Uh, you know, I don’t know. But none of the indicators that I’m watching right now that are playing out like I thought they were i mean 20 months ago I sold most of my equities. And in April of last year I sold my last or I saw my last holdings in a couple of gold mining companies that I’ve done well on, right?
Of any cash and I’ve been in Bitcoin, I’ve been doing what I do and investing in my own business. You know, I was ahead of this. I didn’t think it was gonna be like this because you can’t plan for pandemic, but I could see a decline in markets and cash is king in these types of scenarios. Because, you know, think about this.
If you’ve lost a million dollars in your superannuation, just as a round number here, then the markets falls what 35% so that million dollars now actually buys you a buying power of about $1.4 – $1.5 million a currency stock price, which means your dividend yield and dividends, I believe will also be cut substantially or none.
So those all these that are sitting on their super comb while the prices will fall or slower dividend unless they’re in Greek in rates, I think that they’re going to struggle. Because rates are going to if they’re commercial, they’ll they’ll look at longer term contracts.
And unless those companies go bankrupt, they they’re tied to contracts of 5 10 15 20 years. And that’s why think rates might be a better yield play at the moment. But again, no financial advice. I’m just talking my mind in a media sense, not in a, I’m not telling you what to do. I’m answering a question here.
It’s To be honest, guys, everything is in the air right now. There is no answers, to be honest. The only answer that I can see and that I know. I know is that fortunately for me and my fortune Also comes at the expense of other people’s demise and I don’t like that. But I’m a trader. I’ve seen this before.
I’ve been through this before nothing is as big as this of course I’ll let that but I’ve been through this type of thing before I’ve done very well out of it. As a trader we trade direction we, we don’t look at anything else. Come the end of whatever is coming up, I’m gonna be sitting on money and and I’m going to be buying up.
I’m gonna have a shopping list it’ll be devising over the next few weeks. I know before you ask, I’m not going to share that because I don’t have an IFSL, so I am not a financial advisor. I know what I know and I’ll take care of my portfolio but I’m going to be making a list of companies and assets that I want to purchase and I’ll do really well in the next decade but…
You got to learn that stuff. It’s it’s you know, you got to learn that stuff. It’s you know, people that are out rushing out there right now buying, because they think it’s the right thing to do hey fair you might be right. But I’m not doing it based on thinking I’m doing it based on what I know, I’m a trader.
Like I said, you don’t need to hold Bitcoin to make money on its movements. You don’t need to hold Apple stock to short it. You don’t need to do these things you need to know what you’re looking for. And those that are empowered will do very well in the market. The reason I love crypto guys is because when the markets in traditionally when markets go up in traditional markets, and I’ll show this to you right and this is the absolute 100% reason.
Well, it’s a quick turnaround. This is the absolute 100% reason why I love crypto. All right, jumping back up on the daily when markets go up. They creep so your gains aren’t as substantial on the upside. All right, yeah, you still get good gains, but look at that. Okay, so over from here to here we’re looking at a 16% gains 16% we can do that in two days. All right, that’s over a couple of months. Slower incline, fast decline.
So if you’ve taken a year to make that amount you go out at the right time. But if you’re a trader, you can make that money on margin 10 times over on the fall. That’s why the GFC for me does so well for me. That’s why I focus on crypto because this type of volatility we get all the time. That is exactly why I’m in this market as a trader, we want volatility and you gotta learn how to do it, man.
Oh, sorry. I forgot. Yeah. So it might my mistake I did not show the chart so if you were if you were investing from you know, what’s this December okay yeah, let’s go for from here, from hereto here. 18% over a few months. All right. When was a and from here? Let’s look at this from here to there.
We’re talking 44% growth over the period of what? A year and a couple of months. I call it’s 17-18 months, over the same period of 17-18 months in equities to the low 32%. Do you see what I’m saying? volatility is the trader’s mate. It’s what makes us money. The difference between somebody who makes money and doesn’t is what’s in here. What do they know? What are they doing? And how do they act.
It just it. It’s upsetting to watch people dust their retirement and it’s really upsetting to watch my parents make bad moves, they’re gonna be okay no matter what. But there’s a lot of people out there that are hurting right now. There’s a lot of people out there that don’t know what to do. And there’s a lot of other work the whole lives and they’re going to work their whole lives retire and end up broke. It sucks.
The difference between them and us and it’s this simple guys is understanding what they’re looking at, and I’m giving you shit. You can try this stuff, it’s, you know, you’ve heard me harp on about it such a long time and often it’s this knee jerk reaction that is required for you to actually take frickin notice. You got an opportunity.
I just like I sound a little bit downbeat when I say this and I am a little bit because I’ve been screaming to teach people to trade for the best part of two and a half years now. I know most of you haven’t. This will you’d been set up now and you still can be. It’s up to you. You still there? Are we out of this? No?
How when can you trade when the market goes up when the market goes down? So therefore, what is it? It’s a recession proof tool. Now, it doesn’t need to be your absolute career because you don’t need to spend every day eight hours a day looking at the chart sheet. I don’t. If I was to do that I wouldn’t get anything done. And got on the streets and it’s boring. It’s not I don’t find that, like I’m in shorts. I’m good at it.
Sure I make money. I still feel joy when a great trade sets up. I don’t care about the outcome of the trade. It feels good to get to be profitable. I care about how good the trade is on like a like an artist. I don’t care if you buy my painting for $1,000 or if you don’t buy it at all. I’m proud of that piece of art. That’s the way I look at it. So yeah.
I’m in two minds, right I’m, I’m in the mind of I’m doing well right now. I’m in the mind that I’m very glad that my members are doing very well. But I also feel a little disappointed in myself that we’re not bigger as a business because if we were bigger then more people would have the strategies and they know what to do now.
And that is a frustration of mine that we couldn’t serve you guys better to actually convince you to, to spend a bit of money to learn how to do this, because I can guarantee you right now, if you’ve got any idea what’s going on at the moment, you are making money, and you can make a hand over fist if you’re any good at this. Say, I don’t mean to, you know, put it down or I just, it really is a passion of mine and just do it.
Just do it. Any more questions. Some reason Facebook hasn’t worked for us today. Good old Facebook. huh. I think sometimes Facebook does what Facebook well often Facebook does what Facebook wants and it appears that Facebook has stopped us from going live. Probably because we had the word pandemic in here.
And I’ve read a lot about them cutting a lot of content like that. But this is it’s a little bit annoying because this is a passionate plea to be smart for you guys, and we got a huge audience on Facebook. So anyway, if you want people to look at this, then please just tell them where it is. It’ll be on YouTube, it’ll be on Twitter. It’ll be a video there will upload automatically show people what this is. Give a bit of understanding people are worried get the skills and not to be worried anymore by 10.
Find yellow spots go fishing. Question. Can you trade super via SMSF structure? Yeah, you can. As much as I’m not I’m not somebody who suggests that you go and trade the SMSF. A small point if you set up an SMSF or a self managed Superfund. Then yeah, you can trade. But I would suggest you do it with a small portion because everything’s got to be about managing your risk.
And until you get the results to back you to a position where you are able to not just be a full time trader or an SMSF. Because Don’t forget an SMSF can’t pay you an income until you get to pension stages, I think 60 60 60 or 65, could be 65. I should know at 65 you got to hit pension age to get the full tax benefits and whatnot. But you can do it.
But you know, Never will I suggest that somebody just trades to super or suggest that if that’s what you want to do. Carve out a percentage, a small percentage of what you’re going to work with, and be bloody careful. Because I’m not here to tell you that you got to trade it at all costs. That’s not my objective.
My objective is to give you an opportunity to learn what you’re doing inside the market so you can make money with the markets up or down. You’ve got no idea how powerful that is. You got no idea How nice it is to feel fine in this situation. My feelings of my anxiousness or how anxious I am. It’s not because of me. It’s because of you because I’ve got the skills I’m okay it’s other people that don’t know why is Michel de Olive area? Sweet thanks for the video mate love it already a member and cannot wait for site revamped. Dude, you cannot wait. You have no idea how much I can’t wait. It’s coming. We’re working harder. Gary now is my when you’re ready, buddy, get just jumping. We’re here. We’re here to help. We’ve got a community and the last thing I want to say is we’re in this together Ladies and gentlemen, this is not a one man band. The banks are screwing us. This is this is a world event. We are in this together. listen to a podcast each I’m trying to put a positive spin on things I’m sure we are going to go through this. We’ve got two choices. We can be married. All we can beat right? We know we got to do. I don’t need to read the news every day anymore.
I know what the news is got in.
Okay? I know what we have to do you know what we have to do? Your objective is to look after yourself and your family and those around you look after yourself and your family and those around you. And if, if you wish to learn to trade, then please come across and do so. If you don’t or it’s outside of your budget, let us know. We will, we will point you in the direction of free tools.
My objective is to help you and the community. I’ve got a skill set that unfortunately I’m not being as good as getting the skill set across as many people as I’d like but I’m working on that we’re trying very, very hard to do that. And once we’ve got this new platform up, we’ve got some plans in place. So you know.
Love you stay safe, stiff our bullet, chin up, we’re okay we’ll be okay. And if I can be of any service to If you then just knock on the door I live I live for you. I don’t need to be doing this. I do it because I enjoy it. I don’t because it’s a challenge and I do it because like I said, I’m a goddamn Labrador.
I love being told that I’ve helped people out I love being given that pep on the ears. Not literally. But you know what I mean, that’s, that’s just who I am. So guys, take care. Much love and see you soon. Thank you
Categorised in: Free Video