Where Is Bitcoin Headed Next?
G’day guys and girls obviously. Just wanna do a quick sound check before I get into the markets here. If you can hear me loud and clear, can you just please let me know. There’s a little bit of a lag on these usually. So yeah, if you can hear me please do let me know, and once I know that the sound is good I’ll get stuck in. All right, excellent, sounds like you lot can hear me. Excellent good stuff.
Look, I wanted to tell you a little bit about a few things really. I often don’t talk about my, like what got me here. And I guess my story. Like all you generally hear is that I’ve been trading for 13 years. Most of you if you’ve gone through the website tradercobb.com you’ll understand that I had a fund at 23. I was managing and running it at 23, and I failed.
I wanna make that very clear. Not based on the account returns, but based on how I set the business up. I’m more than willing to own and accept that. 23 years old, you’re given several million pounds to try and set up a team and you know I just didn’t do it as well as I should have. At 23, I didn’t have that much business experience. I’d been running businesses from a very young age but not sort of real-world business experience if that’s the way to put it. But you know, the very beginning though from my point of view was, I’m very fortunate, I’m from Noosa Heads.
For those of you who are tuning in in Australia here probably understand that that’s a very touristy destination, a beautiful part of the world. And yeah, I’ve been very gifted in my upbringing. My father was a successful builder and built homes for multi-million dollar people. You know they were CEOs, Founders, Entrepreneurs. That sort of thing, but he sort of put me in front of a lot of the Entrepreneurs.
Do you remember Crazy Clark’s? Crazy Clark’s a two dollar shop. He was one of my mentors, Robert Clark. Ah, lovely human being. And I worked on his house and he won Queensland Home of the Year. But um, all these people that I sat down and was mentored by, they all had teams of hundreds or thousands. And the reason I got into trading was I was like, it sounds like a headache having to manage all these people.
And it is. I mean I don’t have a team of 200 but, I can tell you with a team of 20 it’s bloody hard work. So I sort of was looking for a solution to that where I could just do my own thing and still make, you know, great sums of money. And I had no experience in anything really. Trading was what sort of caught my eye, because as a trader as an individual, you can trade your account right now at $5000 or $1000, or $100,000.
Now the way you trade your $5000, $1000, or $100,000 account is exactly the same way you would trade $10 million, or $100 million account. Of course there are some different perimeters depending on if you’re licensed and all that sort of stuff but bottom line is that if you can’t make good returns on a small account, you equally can’t make them on a big account. So I saw that as an opportunity for me to go, right well I don’t need a, you know, 700 staff, I can do this myself. The difficult part was that I went into the market thinking that I could do it myself.
And that was a big big mistake and I’m pretty stubborn. No, I’m very bloody stubborn, very stubborn. So if I set my mind on something, I’m gonna make it happen and if I’m gonna leave it, I’m gonna leave it on my own terms, and I thought that because I had you know, had minor success as an entrepreneur as a young fellow, that I could just work out trading myself and I took 9000 pounds and put it aside as a trading business account right.
I went to London in 2005 and started trading in 2006, and I just thought I’d just pick it up. I thought oh the entrepreneurial mind, you know, I can do this, I can make it work. And I failed, I failed, I blew my first 3000 in three months. The next 3000 pounds and this is pounds, it was $2.60. $2.60 Australian to one pound so it was a significant amount of money. I just exited the business when I was 20, and I had some money. And I got it my third time and this is about 18 months into my journey. I lost the final 3000 pounds and I was beside myself.
I was really rattled, really rattled. And the reason I was really rattled was because my father has a successful building company and when I was 15 I said I was gonna happily take it over and do an apprenticeship and you know follow in my fathers footsteps and as you can imagine it was a lot of emotional attachment to that you know. Your son’s doing what the father did. There’s a lot to that.
And then I turned my back on that to go and fulfill my own dreams, and um yeah. I couldn’t fail, it was like you know I’ve turned my back on my family, not so much on my family but on my father on the business on what was to be a very easy path for me and I went my own way. So it was you know, often people will say if you read enough books or listen to audiobooks they’ll say you know you gotta, slam the door and lock it behind you. Meaning, almost like burning a bridge. You can’t look back, you cannot have a plan B. You have to have a plan A.
And that’s what got me into trading. And the epiphany was when I lost that third 3000 pound account that I realized that I can’t do this by myself. And that’s the analogy that I use and you’ve probably heard it about me talking about you know you walk into a professional kitchen and you’ve never eaten a souffle. You’ve never seen a souffle recipe. You’ve never even seen a goddamn souffle, and the chef says “make me 10 souffles” and you go fuck, I don’t know. You got a pantry with 5000 bloody ingredients and you’ve never, you’ve got no idea how to make a souffle.
Your chances of making a souffle are nil and bucklies. Right, just be very aware of that. And that’s what I saw myself as doing. Ah, I was throwing a bunch of sticks at a tree, and what did that achieve? Nothing. Nothing at all, I had nothing to show for it. Because I committed to what I thought was important which was learning. But, if you learn the wrong things it really doesn’t help, as a matter of fact it hinders you.
And that’s what I teach people. I talk about starting with a blank canvas, people go oh look I’ve never traded before I’m not good at math. You don’t need to be good at math. I’ve never traded before, I don’t know what to do. That’s fine do as you are suggested to do. Do as you are told, follow a process.
Now I trade with checklist-based trading strategies. It’s not rocket science guys. I’m a simple guy, I like being in the surf club. I like fishing, I like spear fishing. I like being in the outdoors. I am not anything different to all of this audience that’s watching right now. The difference that we, that I have to you is 10 to 15 years. That’s the only difference.
Now I was an idiot and I will fully own that. I was an idiot, I turned my back on education and it cost me 9000 quid, yeah. And then when I did realize I needed help, it was almost too late but I stuck in there and I made it work, and that’s kind of my story. I got to the point where I had a plan, and my dad, he’s a smart man. He’s a guy who builds, or used to build before he sold the company, custom-built homes in Noosa which is, if you know Noosa it’s got lots of beautiful amazing homes.
He’s won more HoA awards than you can poke a stick at, right. He’s very good at what he does, but he doesn’t know everything. I realized that you can actually be really frickin’ wealthy by just focusing on you and what you’re good at and what you decide that you wish to desire and achieve. And it changed everything for me at that point, I got mentors, I started spending money on courses. I started putting myself in front of the right people.
Now some of the courses were dog shit, I’ll be honest with you, they were, they were argh. I mean the 9000 pounds that I blew on trading I still had more money left over that was the amount that I had put aside for trading so it took a lot. And I was living in London, trading. No job at that stage, trying to learn to trade. So I guess what I’m saying is my issues were my own stubbornness.
My own issues with, I just thought I could do it. You know, I didn’t think I needed anyone else, and I see commons out there in the world, you know. All trading education is rubbish, blah blah blah, and look I, everyone’s entitled to their own opinion and I respect everybody unless you give me a reason not to respect you, I’ll respect you. I haven’t got a problem with that.
But, the easiest way to make a shit ton of money is to copy someone who’s done it in front of you. Now I came from fucking nothing, right. And it’s been 13 years to build my trading ability to where it is. I had it years before the 13. But, this crypto market, it’s just within my community and the people that I’m teaching and the people that I’m working with. It’s um, it’s giving people, it’s making people look better than they are.
And I’ll be honest on that right. I’ll be dead set honest on that. It’s making people look better than they are as traders, and it’s because of the insane volatility that we have in this space. Now as far as I’m concerned, anybody that does not have a desire to learn what a market it telling you, to learn the Spanish. Which is learning the language of the market, you guys, whether it’s me or someone else I couldn’t give two hoots, if you get what I’m saying and it makes sense to you, do my courses. If not, I couldn’t care less, right.
The bottom line is, there is a language being spoken right here and the language is, you manage your risk and in crypto whether it be lower or higher, the potential is so huge, it’s so huge that it makes you look better than you are. And I’m all for that because it equally makes me better than who I am. Yes, I’ve raised two kids and had a family and I’ve managed to do that trading foreign exchange commodities, bonds and equities, right I’ve worked with some of the biggest names in trading. For crypto, it’s another kettle of fish guys.
Between the time of July, oh sorry I started trading in August, end of August 2017. I usually wait eight weeks until I actually actively trade on a new market so I can get the feel for what the normal fund parallels are, what the GDP is, What the PPI is, all these different things, you know in crypt I learnt within six weeks that there aint no, it’s just, you know throw your hat in the air and have a crack.
And the strategies work so well that I just decided that after six weeks I was gonna get into it. From August to December of that year, I did more returns than I had in the last four years, and this is the dead set honest truth, trading foreign exchange commodities, bonds, all that sort of stuff. We are in the most amazing market in the world right now ladies and gentlemen and you and I are early adopters and as our investments grow, and I hope they do for you and for me, we’ve also got this opportunity to leverage ourselves and take advantage of the volatility.
Now you’re not gonna have this, honestly you probably, maybe when you’re, maybe we’ll have another opportunity when we’re, I’m 35 maybe when I’m 65. But these things don’t come around all that often and if you miss this opportunity, you’re gonna kick yourself in the face, and you don’t need to. I can tell you right now from my position I took a big punt on crypto and I’ve put all my time a lot of my money building businesses in this space and it’s there for us.
Don’t fuck with it, yeah? Don’t ignore it. Don’t give yourself excuses. Don’t be saying “oh I can’t do it “because I’ve only got a little bit of time” no, fuck that you’ve got windows. You trade windows. If you’ve got between eight and 10 p.m. or eight and nine p.m. or between one and two, I don’t care. You trade the windows, you learn when the candles close. You work, basically checklist based strategies. Strategies for those moments in time. You can do it, and you know why you can do it, because I did it too. I am nothing special Have a bloody crack.
Right this is an amazing market and I’m gonna walk you through it. I just wanted to give you a bit of background there and just sorta shoot a lightning rod in your ass guys, Come on, we’re in the most special space. No market does this, not for long. Right, I’m gonna get rid of this line here, we’re looking at Bitcoin right now on the 240. Ah obviously we got we got this nice eclipse here high low high low, oh one high low, two high low, three high low, I talked to this break yesterday.
I didn’t get a breakout trade, I didn’t get the third test but it did obviously break and the market has so far followed through with what I was hoping for it to do and suggesting. The best thing I could possibly hope for is a pull back in here on small bullish candle. I want a cradle to go nuts for me here. If I come back to the daily now, couple of things. One, bang, rejection of the low. 10% day there. 7% day here from the low to the high. Each of these candles close above 10, close above 10. Close above 10, close above 10, broke above, pulled back. Now bottom line is this, the weekly is a mess. It’s a God damn mess.
We broke above this high here. Well that high is 220.127.116.11. We broke above there. We’ve got unlimited upside and I still stand by my comments earlier in the month that we do have the potential by the end of August to be hitting a new 2019 high. Now I will say this. It has become more messy. It is a little bit more complex than it was earlier in the month i.e. here. But I still stand by that.
We do have the potential for that very strong up side and the fact that we’ve rejected 10,000 so many times. Maybe just maybe that round number, which is a psychological number, maybe that’s gonna hold and maybe we’ll see a push on. Now from my point of view I am willing to take risks. I haven’t had many trades since the two hour cradle. The last trade I took was this. Did it publicly back here, and that I think the net value after scaling is about nine point something percent. Now you tell me, one trade where you can pull 9% out of a market in the space of a few days.
And if you can tell me that, I will trade that goddamn market. Now it needs to have liquidity. It needs to give me the fills that I want. I am now sitting back. Everything that I’ve hoped to see is happening. I wanna see a small bullish candle hanging out right here tomorrow morning ladies and gentlemen. That’s what I’m after, lets hit the rest of the top 10. We got Etherium, ugly not interested right now. We have a bearish candle in the cradles in a downtrend. Not interested there. Eos, what have we got. Well that flat level you could see through here. Lets go to the one hour.
You can see one, two, didn’t get the third, I need that third. Yeah one, two, three it wasn’t precise enough for me. That’s a bees dick break I call it, why? How big’s a bees dick? Pretty small. I didn’t get a trade there, I pulled back into that, may present me with opportunity for the time being, I’m not too interested in Eos. Stellar has been one of the most ugly charts on the planet for quite some time.
Big spikes like this. Big wicks like this. This is what I teach. Optimal chart structure. There ain’t no optimal chart structure here ladies and gentlemen, I move straight past that onto XRP. XRP look at the daily here. This 285 level, I’ve been speaking about that for quite a long time on the TraderCobb Crypto Podcast and by the way if you don’t follow me on Facebook, YouTube or what’s the other one, Twitter then you should because I do a lot of impromptu lives that are not shared within the groups so follow me because I will go out there and do live and I will talk about the markets, I’ll talk about my trading and I’ll go for it hell for leather and this candle didn’t close bearish enough for me and there is a little bit of divergence there but it is starting to tip over, you can see it clearly.
That old support becoming new resistance and that is just trading 101 ladies and gentlemen. As I work down through the timeframes you’ll see a little bit of cyclicity coming in, I wanna see a lot more and it won’t be tonight that I’ll be taking trades short on XRP.
Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash
Litecoin here again the problem I’ve got here is, yes, good pullback here in the cradle zone. But that $74 level has been support and resistance for quite some time and although not exact, it is a level I need to respect so I won’t be trading it. Ah, Bitcoin Cash. All I need to show you is the daily chart. Look at that, that is a mess. I don’t trade messy charts. I don’t wanna pick a top, I don’t wanna pick a bottom.
I’ll use a checklist based trading strategy to take the highest probability trading outcomes from within a trend. I’ll take the chunk in the middle thank you very much. Binance another one here, very ugly on the daily. Not showing me a great deal. Move to the weekly and again we’re very caught up and have been for a number of weeks so nothing there for me. Tron, very lovely downtrend. Now lets look at the 12 hour and just see how that looks. Oh damn. You can see pullback into the cradle zone.
Back into that old support. Bam big move. Absolutely wonderful right here right now. Lets look at the 16 I don’t think either of these candles close bearish enough, they did not. As I work my way back to the lower time frames, do I find support for a breakout? The answer is no so for me again it’s about leaving a market. You do not need to trade all the time. You need to trade well. The 12 hour here we’re divergent on Cardano. Not interested there, no trades for me. BSV, now I watched this support through here. Didn’t get a short, didn’t get a long. Watching it pull back one thing of interest for me is what it does next, will we see a small bullish candle in which case we do. I am sure Bitcoin will do something very similar.
It would be a higher risk trade, but one that I may, may just look at as well. So going back to Bitcoin right now we are back in the zone that I wanted to be in for our back in that cradle zone. Give me a small bullish candle. Give me an opportunity and I will get head long into this thing. Guys it’s so much about not trading as what it is about trading. Nine times out of 10 I won’t trade.
I’ve had one trade, no I’ve had a couple of trades this month but I’ve had one trade that’s been a big winner and that was a two hour cradle. That was a two hour cradle back here that I showed you before. Stood out to me very very well. I had a few things in front of me like the round number, a few things to take into consideration but I did I took that into consideration. I traded my plan from my checklist.
I am not here to think, I am not here to do anything but follow my checklist based trading strategies so if you want to know more about that guys get across to TraderCobb.com. It’s been an absolute pleasure bringing the markets to you ladies and gentlemen, have a fantastic evening and I hope honestly genuinely. Words fly out of my mouth pretty easily but I do this I mean no one pays me to do this.
I’m not getting paid to do this, I’m doing this to try and give you guys a bit of insight into what a professional trader does each day. Try and help you to not over trade. Try and bring you some understanding of what markets do, how they react, what they look like and how you can take advantage. So guys if you like what I do, then go ahead and get some of the free stuff on the website. TraderCobb.com Take it easy, I’ll be speaking to you again very soon. Cheers guys, bye for now.
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