Why I Went Bullish on Bitcoin
There is something that 13 years experience does in helping me pick moves and get them right more often than not. I can’t teach that but I can teach you what made me see more bulls than bears and what got me long early on.
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G’day guys, just a second, can you hear me? If you can just talk into the chat section that you can hear me. And as soon as I can see that the sound check has worked I’ll go live with you. It’s not going to be a real long one. Just wanted to point out something that I think was pretty, pretty beneficial for you guys. Okie doke. Just a second. All right, good stuff. Little delay there, looks like you can hear me so what I’ll do is I’ll throw that up. G’day, g’day. Saturday afternoon here in Sydney. I’ve just come back from the beach and thought I’d go through and you know, show you guys a few things. One thing I’ve just done is I have amended my stuff on my Bitcoin trade. I’ll show you what that looks like. I’ll also show you why on Wednesday, which was this day back here, I did a podcast on the Tradeco Crypto show that said something along the lines of get ready because it could be hectic, or it’s about to get hectic, or something like that. It was much more to do with the bullish sentiment. That was when price was down here. Okay? And I wanted to talk you through why I got ahead of this move and why I was able to get my, you know, pound of flesh out of it so to speak. But people did cop a bit of flack, you know. People kept telling me it was going to break lower and it was going to 8500 for sure. People were certain of it, and that’s fine. You know, I get things wrong too. But I also get things right a lot more than I get them wrong. And I just wanted to sort of see if I could, I guess, look I can’t teach you my thirteen years of experience. That doesn’t work. I can teach you what I look for, I can teach you what I have learned over those thirteen years to help to progress your trading, I guess in a career to speed up, but I can’t teach you I can’t just go, you know, download upload to you thirteen years of watching the charts effectively. What I can do is I can show you what I was looking at. And if you go back, and you can actually see the… Did I do it as a recording on YouTube? I can’t remember. But it’s definitely in the podcast. What I was saying is that price over here, for example, this was our low at 9,077. This low is above 9,100. That was one little tiny thing. Small, not major, but what I do when I am trading, I’ve got checklists and I am looking to add probabilities. I’m not just looking for a trade. I’m looking to add probabilities to give me a directional momentum, to give me a bunch of different things that help me to make my decision. Now if I look at this here, okay well it didn’t get down through those lows. 9,000 was the old high of 2019 prior to, of course, this push up. I wouldn’t be at all surprised, I also mentioned this in a podcast, that I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see, by the end of August, us achieve new 2019 highs. I think it is looking very strong at the moment. A few more things need to occur, don’t get me wrong, before I really back that even more, but so far, so good.
Here’s what I am looking at. We failed to meet this low. What this is in conviction selling three, the daily after that didn’t show me a great deal apart from the fact that the candle started to get a little bit confused. Now for me, it should have been, if we are going to see further selling, we probably would have seen it. Because typically when Bitcoin comes off, it does come off quite well. It slowed down here. Now if I just jump down to the four hour time frame, not the two, but the four, actually I won’t do it on this because that’s where my trade lies and a bit messy there with my lines there. I jump to the four here. What I was saying was a lack of conviction. Okay, and one thing about conviction is good directional flow that’s relatively predictable. Uh there was a short back here off of 11,000 that was a good trade. A tradable trade. Now a lot of my members got that, I did not because I was at an event and I wasn’t able to get the order on. Convictions sell. Convictions sell. Then I took this trade here off of 10,000 and this was the first sign for me. Took this short off of 10,000 exactly the same trade as here, more or less and got stopped out. Actually made a loss on that one. Then what I saw is it just got messy. I was like okay, so I imagine going on here, then it got messy, messy, messy, and really it like, this low here was a spike. So the higher low’s a little bit higher. I know that is the high over here, but it was just a quick it wasn’t a massively fast spike, it did go down and up over the period of I think of an hour, hour and a half, but look at how messy it started to get. Gone was the conviction that we saw through here. The conviction here was light, and then it just got messy. Now when charts tend to get messy we can see the opportunity for a reversal of trend. Couple that with the fact that it was back at around nearly at 9,000 into old 2019 highs. And I’m just doing little ticks here. Excuse me. Little ticks of positivity. That’s why around here I was suggesting that, you know, we looked more bullish and it was through as we broke up through this point here that’s when I was really alert. Now what I do when I am trading is I look to try and find higher probability outcomes. Now if I take you, oops, take you through here this is a cradle trade that I took and I put it out to everybody, it was the first I’m just going to drop this thing because it needs to be spoken of this little 10,200 region there was two tests which are resistance, okay there was definitely resistance there. What I could see was, you know, this was the first pull back in what became this two-hour uptrend. A beautiful little pullback in here, bullish candled, I didn’t actually get filled on this candle, I got filled over here. This was Friday evening. From there, one-to-one achieved pretty quickly I wasn’t awake for that, I was in bed, I didn’t have an order in there because with Bitmex, I can get I can use an order to take me out of part of the position to scout me out, but then my stop stays the same it doesn’t amend. So I left it, got up in the morning it was something around here or here. Somewhere up here that I closed the first portion of the trade, so I got a lot more than one-to-one. But my plan is to run this thing, you know, I mean there is a high or low here, so my entry was the break of this level, my stop loss was underneath here, and now my stop was up to here. So it is a multiple of, I don’t know, it looks roughly like four, I haven’t done the exact calculations. I don’t really care. But it is a really nice entry.
So it’s about combining the higher time frames and looking for entries where you can find it. Now I did put the message out that because this was getting long ahead of 10,000, i.e. a round psychological number, and also some resistance up here, that I was going to minimize my risk. And I did, I took a half-percent risk on this trade. Fantastic outcome and again, once again this was, I closed out, what was it, I took XRP Bitcoin last Friday and took my profit, took half the trade off the following morning, the Saturday morning before my course that I was running in Sydney. That’s why my voice sounds a little bit funny if you have noticed that. Two days full days, two full days in Sydney last weekend teaching it in person, that’s what that is. Full booklets and everything. So my voice is still a bit strained, I think I went a bit hard. I got Brisbane coming up this weekend if you are around the area then get your ticket just go to tradercobb.com, but more or less you know what I did this week was close XRP because just a slight touch more than 1%, I got stopped out of another trade, and obviously locked in a great profit here on Bitcoin. So again, it has been a great week, but it is knowing when to be patient and knowing when to stay out, and then knowing when to attack. And that’s, I guess, what traders need to do. You don’t need to be trading all the time guys, to be doing well. So guys that will do me, I want to give my voice a bit more of a rest. Those in Brisbane I will see you next weekend, I can’t wait. And um, yeah, take it easy guys. I thought that would be beneficial. I really hope it was, see you very soon. Bye for now.
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